Agricultural retention in California: modeling the effectiveness of the Williamson Act as public policy

The Williamson Act has served as a major regulatory tool to impede the loss of farmland in California. Since similar voluntary, tax-incentive programs for farmland conservation exist in nearly every state in the Union, it is pertinent to ask the question: Will this Act and other similar programs remain effective and viable in the years to come? Past observation of Tulare County, California, reveals a significant and growing number of parcels leaving the Williamson Act around urban areas and major roads. Furthermore, cellular automata simulation of the future in Tulare County suggests that the current decline in enrolled hectares will continue well into the future. Finally, parcels terminating their contracts tend to be disproportionately near urban areas and contain prime farmland, rather than less-valuable grazing lands, causing them to share a greater burden of urban development.